High Threat Level in Northern Ireland

There is limited additional information available at this time that specifically identifies the elements causing the U.K. government to change the threat level for Northern Ireland. Prior to raising the threat level, the terrorism threat level was lowered in March 2022 from “severe” to “substantial,” which was the first change to the nation’s threat level since 2010. Since March 2022, there have been two terror-related incidents attributed to the New IRA: a bomb attack on a police patrol car in County Tyrone in November 2022, and a shooting incident targeting a senior detective in the town of Omagh on 22 February 2023. Additionally, a police operation on 28 March 2023 uncovered a significant quantity of ammunition in Londonderry as part of an investigation into the New IRA. Under the newly raised threat level, government officials have advised the public to remain alert to any possible terrorist activity but did not identify any specific threats.

Dissident republican groups have been linked to several terror-related incidents since the early 2000s. The New IRA, which has been connected to multiple criminal events in recent years, was founded in 2012 as a continuation and merging of the Real IRA with other dissident groups, such as the Republican Action Against Drugs. In 2019, the New IRA conducted at least seven terror-related attacks in Northern Ireland amid the U.K.’s withdrawal from the EU (Brexit). New IRA leaders claim that Brexit allowed the group to refocus and once again raise tensions surrounding the hard border between the U.K. and the rest of the EU. There was a brief slowdown in New IRA attacks from 2020-2021, likely due to the emergence of the coronavirus. Since the lifting of coronavirus-related restrictions in the U.K., the New IRA has resumed attacks in Northern Ireland.

Discussions centered on Brexit and Northern Ireland are also likely triggers for an increase in attacks by the New IRA. Government officials began discussions surrounding a new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland in late February 2023. The deal, known as the Windsor Framework, outlines various rules regarding the movement of goods between the EU and Northern Ireland. The agreement aims to resolve border issues that arose in Northern Ireland following Brexit. Citizens should continue to monitor any developments related to the Windsor Framework or Northern Ireland’s border, as tensions tend to increase in response to such government discussions. In addition to the specific incidents cited above, the environment surrounding any negotiations that involve the Irish border is likely to be viewed by dissident groups as a climate that encourages attacks. For the immediate future, such concerns are likely to be limited to Northern Ireland, but the situation should continue to be monitored closely for changes.